An Obvious Bait & the Feigned Retreat - 10/15/23
What Israel-Palestine, the Battle of Cannae, & the Mongolian Military Tactics Teach You About Rhetoric, Warfare, & Public Opinion
The consensus amongst smart geopoliticians I follow is that Hamas’ terror attack on Israel was designed to bait Israel into attempting to obliterate Gaza killing thousands of innocent civilians in the process. Thereby, Israel’s zealous action would freeze a potential rapprochement with Saudi Arabia, which is a geopolitical win for Iran. For the USA, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Israel, and India just recently announced the IMEC (India-Middle East-Europe Corridor), an economic trade route that would leave nations like Iran, Turkey, and Qatar out of the cool kids club as well as be an effective rebuff versus the floundering One Belt One Road initiative from China.
Basically, Iran's (and probably Qatar’s) point was to bait Israel into an overreach.
Victimhood is in vogue. If you’ve followed Twitter, both Israeli and Palestinian accounts are posting the grotesque and horrible civilian tolls of this terror attack and subsequent war. With AI in the mix, there’s plenty more disinformation designed to garner sympathy and outrage along with the usual old or edited videos and pictures.
This is an integral battle - the court of public opinion. If Israel is too egregious in its Gazan campaign, the Saudis will find it difficult to make the deal. There is probably a meta-game happening in the background of what atrocities will be acceptable and what will not. What outcomes can the Arabs swallow and what they will spit out?
It mirrors war in a way. Over two millennia ago, the legendary general Hannibal of Carthage did a similar bait against a much more powerful Roman adversary. He initially formed his army with a bulge out in the middle consisting of relatively weaker troops. Long story short, the idea was as the battle commenced, a superior Roman middle would gleefully beat back the Carthaginian middle bulge.
So zealous the Romans would be that eventually, the formation flipped into an enveloping cup. Soon enough, Hannibal’s infamous Numidian cavalry flank would tear through Roman ranks and make that cup into a circle slaughtering the Romans in one of their most devastating defeats in history. Hannibal would march on across the Italian peninsula marking his path with Latin defeats and dead denizens.
The Mongols as with other steppe horse archers would do a similar feigned retreat tactic. Needling their adversaries with swift arrows shot from just as swift horses, enemy armies would grow frustrated as soldiers died with little to do in the way of reaction. Soon enough, the Mongols would engage the enraged army and then dutifully double back in a retreat with very enticing gaps in their formation to seduce their opponents into a chase. Like clockwork, their enemies would abide almost every time in a manic pursuit until a seemingly disheveled Mongol force would coalesce in unison like a flock of migratory birds and rain hellfire upon their enemies.
Game, set, match.
Modern political discourse is like that as well. Sending small barbs at your enemy. Sometimes big attacks as well. Focusing on off-balanced people. Those who will lash out and make their “side” look stupid. Low-life journalists, activists, and academics on Twitter are experts at this - tweet out fairly offensive crap and then screenshot the craziest responses in a predictable dance of victimhood. Countries do this as well via spycraft, terrorism, NGOs, etc…
This is a lot of what’s happening now with Israel and Palestine. Who can bait the other side to commit the most vile atrocity? Hamas needed no help with their initial move as they were clearly the most irrational and maniacal of the whole conflict. They displayed their terror proudly like true barbarians. In a bout of bloodlust, we now await an Israeli storm of foot soldiers to go into Gaza. To the north and west, Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies exchange goads with Israel. Which side will take the bait, and which will be redeemed with a successful “preemptive action?”
For a visual representation of the above, see this great explanation by South Park of the above principles - “It’s Coming Right For Us!”
Hoping terror subsides & peace prevails. Till next week.
-Akshar